Satellites networks in the latest report of The Shift Project

The Shift Project has published two new reports on digital technology, focusing particularly in one of them on satellite networks and internet mega-constellations, in collaboration with AÉRO DÉCARBO.

For this analysis, we reused a deployment-renewal model for these infrastructures and a for estimating associated environmental pressures that I developed with Andrew Wilson and Guillermo Joaquín Domínguez Calabuig for the study presented here.

First, the model illustrates that these constellations represent a massive shift in scale in terms of payload mass placed into orbit each year. Compared to the historical activities of the last decade, they would lead to a ninefold increase by 2040, even under our conservative hypothesis of a configuration reduced to 7,500 satellites for the largest among them, Starlink (compared to the 42,000 potentially planned).

Furthermore, this model allowed us to track the evolution of emissions related to these constellation projects. The space sector’s emissions over the pre-launch life cycle would increase fivefold by 2040.

While this is a very significant increase, the most worrying trend lies on the launch side, with a multiplication of particle emissions in the upper layers of the atmosphere (6 to 7 times more alumina and soot). These particles are known as the primary drivers of the sector’s climate impact, as their warming potential is tenfold compared to ground level (soot, for instance, has an estimated factor of 500). More details on this topic can be found here.

However, significant uncertainties remain regarding both the quantities emitted and their effects on the climate or the ozone layer. In particular, the soot emissions from methane—the fuel used by Starship for Starlink’s deployment—are still unknown (experts rely on “best guesses,” which we have adopted).

In other words, the climate impact of Starlink, the project that will be the main determinant of the space sector’s “size,” is itself determined by a variable that remains unknown.

This is embarrassing in the context of a climate emergency, especially as the rest of the global economy is planning its decarbonization.

And for what services? And for whom? The “Networks” report will provide you with key insights. Spoiler: we are quite far from the frequently promoted vision of connectivity projects for developing countries.