A system dynamics model of the low Earth orbit environment
Summary of my scientific paper presenting the debris module of the COSMOS model.
The culmination of my latest research project is a paper presenting an integrated modeling of the various sustainability issues related to space activities via the system dynamics model COSMOS, revealing a high level of interconnection and numerous conflicts between mitigation strategies. More info here.
But to make this possible, it was first necessary to develop and validate a dedicated module simulating the evolution of satellite and debris populations, incorporating elements absent from conventional debris models:
⛽ A dynamic evaluation of satellite propellant needs (for drag compensation, collision avoidance, and end-of-life disposal), which influences the mass of newly produced satellites and feeds back into the system. (Entirely new)
🏭 The integration of the effects of human CO2 emissions on atmospheric density, and thus on drag affecting objects in low Earth orbit, under different SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) trajectories. (Very rarely included)
This deserved a dedicated article: it is now published in Advances in Space Research.